Tuesday November 02, 2004 at 12:14 AM
Predicting the Outcome
Appearing in Politics
- America’s leadership and prestige depend, not merely upon our unmatched material progress, riches and military strength, but on how we use our power in the interests of world peace and human betterment.
- Dwight David Eisenhower
34th President of the United States, Republican
Quote courtesy of Bob Herbert writing in the NY Times, “Days of Shame”, November 1st, 2004.
My prediction: Kerry and Edwards win close races in a majority of the swing states, resulting in a decisive victory in the popular vote and a landslide in the Electoral College. The pollsters and pundits underestimated both the amount of anger and the determination of youth.
The Bush Administration will be lame duck and a more hopeful, brighter day will shine forth.
Comments
I sure hope you're right about the election. Otherwise Los Altos will not be far enough away from DC -- we'll all have to move to Europe or Canada to regain our sanity.
Posted by: nils on Tue Nov 02, 04
Today could quite possibly be the most depressing day of my life. I already have my "He's not MY president" bumper sticker on my car. I'd hoped I wouldn't need it...
My faith in the American people has taken several hits in the last few years, but I still held out hope that the ignorant and the lunatic Christian fringe were in the minority. This is the dawn of a profoundly frightening era for progressive, independent thinkers. All we can do now is try to hold on for dear life to our rapidly diminishing civil liberties. If Bush has his way, we'll all be in concentration camps with mandatory Bible study by the end of his second term. And the draft will be inevitable with Bush in office rather than Kerry. Our former allies aren't likely to help us clean up the mess in Iraq under another Bush administration. Unlike many 38 year old women, I have to worry about my 23 year old husband being called up. He'll go to prison or to Mexico before he'll fight a rich man's oil war, though.
Anyone else out there? I could really use a support group right about now...
Posted by: Juli Ned on Tue Nov 02, 04
Juli, as tough as it is to accept this defeat, I hope you won't let the disappointment overwhelm. Second term administrations have historically been very difficult for the incumbent -- Watergate, Iran/Contra, Monica-Gate -- all second term scandals.
The media is back on the job. The activists are energized with throngs of new supporters and new money. And the Democrats are finally on to the games and manipulations of the Bushies.
The next four years isn't going to be easy on those of us still thinking for ourselves but neither will it be easy for the forces of intolerance and corruption.
And as for the draft, forget about it. There is no way Bush will reinstate the draft. As things stand, the President is able to use our military as a sort of personal army with little or no Congressional oversight.
A draft would create a level of accountability between the government and the citizenry that would ultimately limit the ability of the President to fight unpopular and unjust wars. And regardless of rhetoric, the last thing the Bush Administration wants is more accountability in government.
Posted by: Bob Baxley on Tue Nov 02, 04
And as for my prediction, it seems that the thing I overestimated was the youth vote. I don't know what it's going to take to motivate the 18 to 29 year olds but their lack of participation in these elections is certainly taking its toll on their future.
Posted by: Bob Baxley on Tue Nov 02, 04
Oh, I'm quite sure that a higher level of accountability is the last thing that Bush wants, but since when does he feel any obligation to be accountable to the unwashed masses? At least with Kerry, we had a shot at getting our former allies back into the game and helping us clean up our mess in Iraq... As it stands now, our military is stretched to the breaking point, with no hope of UN aid or intervention in Iraq under a second Bush administration. (Or should I say "regime"?) I don't see any way to avoid a draft if we hope to address the threats that ARE real, or defend ourselves against further attacks on American soil.
As for despair, just give me a few days to wallow. I'll probably drink myself into a coma this weekend, then I'll come back fighting mad and stronger than ever. I guess we can always hope for a sex scandal, preferably involving little boys! After all, to the right wing, "morality" only applies to sex and fetuses, not false justifications for war...
Thanks for the encouraging words...
Posted by: Juli Ned on Tue Nov 02, 04